Posted by: David Aldrich
Our next winter storm is still on track.

This will be the third major storm of the season.

Start Time ?
5 PM to 8 PM (Dinnertime) Tuesday evening

Ending Time ?
Around Midnight Thursday morning

1 PM Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 - North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model, taken from the 12z run (7 AM)
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Courtesy: NCEP

For the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor...

NAM is yielding roughly 1.25 inches of liquid or

12.5 to 16 inches of snow.




1 PM Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 - Global Forecast System (GFS) Model, taken from the 12z run (7 AM)
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Courtesy: NCEP

For the Philly Metro and the I-95 corridor...

GFS is yielding over 1.25 inches of liquid or

12.5 to 21 inches of snow.



*** Some rain, freezing rain or sleet may mix in as well (especially south and east of Philly...namely, Southern Delaware and Extreme South Jersey) and could significantly lower these amounts. ***

This is still the trend.

Could it change slightly ? Of course.

So what's important ?

Expect 1 to 2 feet of snow with higher drifts.

If you need more supplies, food, gas, diapers or medication, for example, today and Tuesday are the days to get it.

Given the way this winter has been going, expect another snowy punch.



The storm data will continue to change.

Updates will follow.




As this storm hits, new records will be broken.

The "Snowiest Winters of All-Time" are merely inches away.

Philly needs 9.2 inches more to break the snowiest season ever.

65.5 1995-1996
56.3 2009-2010 so far...

Wilmington needs 2.0 inches more to break the snowiest season ever.

55.9 1995-1996
53.9 2009-2010 so far...

and Atlantic City needs 4.1 inches more to break the snowiest season ever.

46.9 1966-1967
46.4 1995-1996
43.1 1978-1979
42.8 2009-2010 so far...


Posted by: David Aldrich
I must admit, watching the Super Bowl this evening has been a good distraction.

However, our next winter storm is still on the way.

This will be the third major storm of the season.

As this storm hits, new records will be broken.

The "Snowiest Winters of All-Time" are merely inches away.

Philly needs 9.2 inches more to break the snowiest season ever.

65.5 1995-1996
56.3 2009-2010 so far...

Wilmington needs 2.0 inches more to break the snowiest season ever.

55.9 1995-1996
53.9 2009-2010 so far...

and Atlantic City needs 4.1 inches more to break the snowiest season ever.

46.9 1966-1967
46.4 1995-1996
43.1 1978-1979
42.8 2009-2010 so far...


When will the next storm arrive ?

Late Tuesday (toward evening) into all-day Wednesday


1 PM Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 - North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model, taken from the 0z run (7 PM)
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Courtesy: NCEP

For the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor...

NAM is yielding roughly 0.70 inches of liquid or

7 to 9.5 inches of snow.




1 PM Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 - Global Forecast System (GFS) Model, taken from the 0z run (7 PM)
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Courtesy: NCEP

For the Philly Metro and the I-95 corridor...

GFS is yielding over 1.90 inches of liquid or

19 to 32 inches of snow.


*** Some rain, freezing rain or sleet may mix in as well (especially south and east of Philly...namely, Southern Delaware and Extreme South Jersey) and could significantly lower these amounts. ***

This is still the trend.

Could it change slightly ? Of course.

So what's important ?

Expect 1 to 2 feet of snow with higher drifts.

If you need more supplies, food, gas, diapers or medication, for example, Monday and Tuesday are the days to get it.

Given the way this winter has been going, expect another snowy punch.


We are still two days out.

The storm data will continue to change.

Updates will follow.

Watching the Next Storm !

02/07/10 12:38 PM EST

Posted by: David Aldrich
Have you caught your breath yet ?

The next storm is coming.

When ?

Late Tuesday (toward evening) into most of Wednesday


1 PM Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 - North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model, taken from the 12z run (7AM)
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Courtesy: NCEP

For the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor...

NAM is yielding roughly 0.65 inches of liquid or

6.5 to 10 inches of snow.




1 PM Wednesday, February 10th, 2010 - Global Forecast System (GFS) Model, taken from the 12z run (7AM)
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Courtesy: NCEP

For the Philly Metro and the I-95 corridor...

GFS is yielding over 1.50 inches of liquid or

16 to 25 inches of snow.



*** Some rain, freezing rain or sleet may mix in as well and could significantly lower these amounts. ***

This is the trend.

Could it change ? Of course.

So what's important ?

I think parents, students, and decision-makers need to prepare mentally for at least a foot to a foot and a half of snow (12 to 18 inches).

Clearly, based on the current data, 1 to 2 feet of snow is not out of the question.


We are still several days out.

The storm data will continue to change.

Updates will follow.



The Next Storm is Coming !

02/06/10 11:47 PM EST

Posted by: David Aldrich
Catch your breath.

The next storm is coming.

When ?

Late Afternoon Tuesday into most of Wednesday

1 PM Forecast for Wednesday, February 10, 2010...Global Forecast System (GFS) model, taken from the 0 z run (7 PM)
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Courtesy: NCEP

Here is the model output for the Philly Metro and the I-95 Corridor:

16 to 25 inches

Some rain or sleet may mix in and possibly lower these amounts.

This is the trend.

Could it change ? Of course.

So what's important ?

I think parents, students, and decision-makers need to prepare mentally for at least a foot to a foot and a half of snow (12 to 18 inches).


We are still several days out.

The storm data will continue to change.

Updates will follow.

Posted by: David Aldrich
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
515 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2010

...SECOND SNOWIEST YEAR (JULY THROUGH JUNE) THUS FAR IN
PHILADELPHIA...



WITH THE 28.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN PHILADELPHIA, THE SEASON TOTAL
JUMPED TO 56.3 INCHES. THIS TOTAL NOW RANKS SECOND AND IS ONLY
BEHIND THE 65.5 INCHES THAT FELL IN 1995-1996.


THE TEN SNOWIEST YEARS (JULY THROUGH JUNE) AT PHILADELPHIA:

RANK SNOWFALL YEARS
(INCHES)

1 65.5 1995-1996
2 56.3 2009-2010
3 55.4 1898-1899
4 54.9 1977-1978
5 49.1 1960-1961
6 46.3 2002-2003
7 44.3 1966-1967
8 43.9 1917-1918
9 43.8 1904-1905
10 41.8 1957-1958

KRUZDLO
-----

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
801 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2010

...GREATEST SNOWFALL AT WILMINGTON...

THE 25.8 INCHES OF SNOW THAT FELL IN WILMINGTON LATE YESTERDAY AND
TODAY WAS THE GREATEST SNOWFALL IN RECORDED HISTORY.

THE FIVE GREATEST SNOWFALLS AT WILMINGTON:

RANK SNOWFALL DATE
(INCHES)

1 25.8 FEBRUARY 5/6 2010
2 22.2 JANUARY 8/9 1996
3 22.0 FEBRUARY 16/17/18 2003
4 21.7 MARCH 6/7 1912
5 20.0 JANUARY 16/17/18 1907

KRUZDLO

-----

CLICK HERE for Snow Total Map and Numbers

Take a deep breath.

There is another winter storm on the horizon for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The Tuesday night into Wednesday Storm also looks juicy.

The early call is for 12 to 18 inches for Philly and I-95 corridor, but more mixing of sleet and freezing rain could significantly lower those amounts.

More updates to come.

--- David



Snow Update...Take a Deep Breath

02/06/10 11:45 AM EST

Posted by: David Aldrich
CLICK HERE for Snow Total Map and Numbers

Take a deep breath.

While this storm begins to wind down this afternoon, there is another winter storm on the horizon for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The Tuesday night into Wednesday Storm also looks juicy.

The early call is for 12 to 18 inches for Philly and I-95 corridor, but more mixing of sleet and freezing rain could significantly lower those amounts.

More updates to come.

Muggy, our happy yellow lab who loves snow (Born in Rochester, NY)
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View out the backdoor.
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If you would like to leave a comment or a personal snowfall measurement, click on the GREEN TITLE of this blog and SCROLL DOWN.


Posted by: David Aldrich
UPDATE 9:35 AM - Saturday -

Where will this storm rank ?

Biggest Snowfalls in Philly Ever Recorded

30.7 inches January 7-8, 1996
23.2 inches December 19, 2009


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UPDATE 8:35 AM - Saturday CLICK HERE for Snow Totals Map so far and Numbers. (To see more numbers, scroll down below the map.)

------

Look for 1 to 3 feet of snow with higher drifts by Saturday afternoon.

Here is a look at the latest output coming in from the NAM model:

Saturday morning, February 6, 2010 - North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, taken from the 0z run (7 PM)
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Courtesy: NCEP


Philadelphia
13 to 28 inches

Northeast Philadelphia
9 to 24 inches

Wilmington
16 to 26 inches

Dover
30 to 35 inches

Atlantic City
21 to 32 inches

Millville
21 to 25 inches

Trenton
7 to 21 inches

Reading
8 to 21 inches

Allentown
6 to 16 inches

Yes, the ranges are big. But what this tells me is that the totals will be much heavier south toward Kent County, DE, Cumberland County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ and Atlantic County, NJ.

Posted by: David Aldrich
Based on the 18 z data (1 PM), the trend is for higher snowfall totals.

This storm is dynamic.

And while the heaviest of the snow will fall between 12 Midnight and 7 AM Saturday,
don't be surprised if most areas in Philly and along the I-95 corridor now get 1 to 3 feet...with higher drifts by Saturday afternoon.

Snowfall rates will be amazing. Over 2 to 3 inches + per hour at times.

2 to 3 feet of snow will be more common south of Philly (mainly, Dover to Millville to Cape May to Atlantic City).

In the end, some of you may think this storm is worst than the December 19th storm. And that's quite a statement.

CLICK HERE for a close-up view on the radar.

Stay safe.

The Big Storm is Here !

02/05/10 11:57 AM EST

Posted by: David Aldrich
UPDATE 7:45 PM - Friday The NAM and GFS models are still bullish on areas between Washington D.C. and Dover for intense snow banding.
2 to 3 Feet + of snow there is not out of the question.
----

UPDATE 4:10 PM - Friday For good tips on how to measure snow...CLICK HERE

----

1 to 2 Feet of Snow is on the way...with higher drifts.

My expectation has not changed.

The "start time" and "ending time" of the storm, however, appear to have pushed back a few hours.

As the clouds get thicker and lower, the column of air will grow moist and it will start snowing hard.

High winds with gusts 40 to 50 mph inland, whiteout conditions, coastal flooding and beach erosion are all on the table, as this storm slams the coast.

The National Weather Service has posted numerous Winter Storm Warnings and Blizzard Warnings.

CLICK HERE for the NWS map.

Philly and the I-95 Corridor

REVISED Start Time ?
Around 6 PM Today - dinnertime
(A few hours earlier to the West)

REVISED Ending Time ?
Around 4 PM Saturday
(A bit later for areas South and East)

Saturday morning, February 6th, 2010 - North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model, taken from the 12z run (7AM)
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Courtesy: NCEP

NAM is yielding nearly 1.85 inches of liquid or

18.5 to 23 inches of snow with drifts of 54 inches.




Saturday morning, February 6th, 2010 - Global Forecast System (GFS) Model, taken from the 12z run (7AM)
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Courtesy: NCEP

GFS is yielding nearly 1.45 inches of liquid or

14.5 to 20 inches of snow with drifts of 36 inches.



What I expect is that most areas will receive 12 to 18 inches of snow on average.

Locally higher amounts, however, should be expected.
Throw in a nasty wind and you will get those higher drifts.


CLICK HERE and CLICK HERE to track the radar.

Take note...

Snowfall amounts may be much lower further south and toward the beach. Why ?

Because the ocean temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s.

That means parts of Kent and Sussex Counties in Delaware and parts of Cape May and Atlantic Counties in New Jersey are likely to see some sleet or rain mixed in at times, but you will still get hit with plenty of snow.

Posted by: David Aldrich
UPDATE 8:10 AM FRIDAY - Storm still on target. Winter Storm Warnings and Blizzard Warnings have been posted by the NWS.

CLICK HERE to see their map.

CLICK HERE for tracking the radar.

---------------

1 to 2 Feet of Snow is Still Coming...with higher drifts.

Are you ready ?

In terms of "impact," this storm will look a lot like the winter storm we had on December 19th, 2009...seven weeks ago to the day.

From a weather data standpoint, not much has changed since yesterday.

High winds with gusts 40 to 50 mph inland, whiteout conditions, coastal flooding and beach erosion are all on the table, as this storm slams the coast.

If you need supplies, food, diapers or medication, for example, now is the time to get it.

Please encourage your neighbors to do the same.

Philly Metro and the I-95 corridor

Start time at this point ?
Around 3 PM on Friday.
(A few hours earlier to the West)

Ending time ?
Around Midday Saturday
(A bit later to the South and East)

Saturday morning, February 6th - North American Mesoscale (NAM) model
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Courtesy: NCEP

NAM is yielding nearly 1.50 inches of liquid or 15 to 30 inches of snow.



Early Saturday morning, February 6th - Global Forecast System (GFS) model
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Courtesy: NCEP

GFS is yielding over 1.15 inches of liquid or 12 to 30 inches of snow.


What I expect is that most areas will receive 12 to 18 inches of snow on average.

Locally higher amounts, however, should be expected. Throw in a nasty wind and you will get those higher drifts.



Take note...

Snowfall amounts may be much lower further south and toward the beach. Why ?

Because the ocean temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s.

That means parts of Kent and Sussex Counties in Delaware and parts of Cape May and Atlantic Counties in New Jersey are likely to see some sleet or rain mixed in at times, but you will still get hit with plenty of snow.