Snowfall Scoreboard

03/04/10 08:56 AM EST

Posted by: David Aldrich

This has been the "Snowiest Winter on Record" for Philadelphia, Wilmington and Atlantic City !

Seasonal Snowfall so far...

Syracuse, NY
106.0 inches

Rochester, NY
89.6 inches

Baltimore, MD
80.4 inches

Philadelphia, PA
78.7 inches

Buffalo, NY
74.1 inches

Washington D.C. (Dulles)
73.2 inches

Wilmington, DE
72.7 inches

Allentown, PA
59.8 inches

Atlantic City, NJ
58.1 inches

New York City, NY (JFK)
47.2 inches


CLICK HERE for a snowfall history of Philadelphia
CLICK HERE for a snowfall history of Wilmington
CLICK HERE for a snowfall history of Atlantic City
CLICK HERE for a snowfall history of Allentown

Minor event fizzles...

03/03/10 08:05 AM EST

Posted by: David Aldrich

Minor event fizzles with abundant mixing of rain and sleet.

CLICK HERE to track the radar

CLICK HERE for NWS "Storm Total Snow Forecast"

This Week's Storm...

02/28/10 12:11 PM EST

Posted by: David Aldrich

UPDATE 2 PM Tuesday -

For the Philly Metro and the I-95 corridor...

NAM model
0.5 to 1.5 inches of snow

GFS model
3 to 5 + inches of snow, with rain to start

My expectation:
1 to 4 + inches of snow by Wednesday evening seems likely...rain with some mixing to start.


Timing of storm still on target.

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UPDATE 1:30 PM Monday - New data today looks pretty much unchanged.
Minor event ahead.
1 to 2 inches of snow mixed with rain and sleet on the GFS and "Just Flurries" on the NAM.

Don't expect much, as the trend keeps most of the energy out to sea.

Timing of the event is still on target.

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This week's snowstorm still looks powerful, but is pushing farther out to sea, suggesting that we get a nuisance event here in the Mid-Atlantic.

This is still great news for those who are "winter-weary."

The storm will be crossing the Gulf of Mexico from West to East and skirting across Northern Florida before riding up portions of the Eastern Seaboard.

This storm track may adjust a bit over the next couple of days, which means snowfall amounts could change.

However, as of right now, this is a minor event...

Start time ?

Late Tuesday night (mainly after 10 PM) and lasting "on and off" on Wednesday (March 2nd and 3rd).

For the Philly Metro and the I-95 corridor...

7 AM Wednesday morning, March 3rd - Global Forecast System (GFS) model, based on today's 12z run (7 AM)

Courtesy: NCEP

GFS is yielding under 0.15 inches of liquid or

0.5 to 2.0 inches of snow with some light mixing



For the Philly Metro and the I-95 corridor...

7 AM Wednesday morning, March 3rd - North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, based on today's 12z run (7 AM)

Courtesy: NCEP

NAM is yielding around 0.10 inches of liquid or

0.5 to 1.5 inches of snow with some light mixing



Stay tuned.

Tsunami Links

02/27/10 05:01 PM EST

Posted by: David Aldrich

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CLICK HERE for National Data Buoy Center

CLICK HERE for Tsunami links

CLICK HERE for Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages

CLICK HERE for World's Biggest earthquakes since 1900

Next Week's Storm...

02/27/10 11:42 AM EST

Posted by: David Aldrich

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Next week's snowstorm looks powerful, but is trending farther out to sea, suggesting that we get only a glancing blow across the Mid-Atlantic.

This is great news for those who are "winter-weary."

This storm track will change again and again over the next couple of days, which means snowfall amounts could increase or decrease dramatically.

As of right now...

Start time ?

Late Tuesday night (mainly after 10 PM) and lasting "on and off" on Wednesday (March 2nd and 3rd).

For the Philly Metro and the I-95 corridor...

7 AM Wednesday morning, March 3rd - Global Forecast System (GFS) model, based on today's 12z run (7 AM)

Courtesy: NCEP

GFS is yielding over 0.25 inches of liquid or

1.5 to 3.5 inches of snow with some light mixing to start


Stay tuned.

UPDATED Snowfall Totals, Plus Another Storm ?!?

02/26/10 12:24 PM EST

Posted by: David Aldrich

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CLICK HERE for UPDATED Snowfall Totals

There is a map plus individual cities, as you scroll down.


No rest for the weary.

Another snowstorm appears to be in "model development" for next Tuesday night into Wednesday (March 2nd and 3rd).

For the Philly Metro and the I-95 corridor...

1 PM Wednesday afternoon, March 3rd - Global Forecast System (GFS) model, based on today's 12z run (7 AM)

Courtesy: NCEP

GFS is yielding over 0.90 inches of liquid or

9 to 17 inches of snow

Snowstorm Continues...

02/25/10 11:00 AM EST

Posted by: David Aldrich

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UPDATE 10:35 PM Thursday - CLICK HERE for Snowfall Totals So Far...

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UPDATE 11:50 AM - I added more model data below from the GFS output.

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As of this writing, the brunt of this snowstorm is focused between Northeast Philly and Trenton.

Bands of snow from Bucks county, PA to Burlington County, NJ will continue to hit these areas a bit harder.

The "SHARP cut-off" is keeping Delaware out of the heaviest bands of snow, as expected.

In other words, Delaware will see more of a nuisance snow, as this system reloads later tonight and into Friday morning.

The track of this storm has been critical to determine just how much snow makes it to our area.


CLICK HERE and CLICK HERE to track the radar.


Here's a look at the NWS Storm Total Prediction...CLICK HERE


Here's a sneak peek at the latest model data:

For the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor...

1 PM today, February 25, 2010 - North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, based on today's 12z run (7 AM)

Courtesy: NCEP

NAM is yielding another 0.50 inches of liquid or

5 to 9 inches of additional snow

By early Friday morning, winds on the NAM model suggest gusts inland 50 to 55 mph and higher along the Shore.


Scattered power outages will continue to be a problem.

There is new evidence that additional snow showers will linger into Saturday as well.

The NAM model depicts an accumulation phase that comes in 3 distinct stages, namely Thursday, Early Friday Morning - Friday, and Saturday morning.




For the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor...

1 PM Thursday afternoon, February 25, 2010 - Global Forecast System (GFS) model, based on today's 12z run (7 AM)

Courtesy: NCEP

GFS is yielding another 0.65 inches of liquid or

6.5 to 12.5 inches of additional snow

By early Friday morning, winds on the GFS model suggest gusts inland around 50 mph and higher along the Shore.




Because of the SHARP cut-off from West to East, snowfall amounts will vary greatly, with the heaviest (10 to 20 inches) between Northeast Philly and Trenton...and the least (5 inches or less) in most of Delaware.

Heavy Snow Update

02/24/10 10:25 PM EST

Posted by: David Aldrich

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UPDATE 8:10 AM Thursday - The "SHARP cut-off" is keeping Delaware out of the heaviest bands of snow, as expected.

Click on the radar links below to follow it.

Here's a look at the NWS Storm Total Prediction...CLICK HERE

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UPDATE 11:50 PM Wednesday - I added more model data below with the latest GFS output.

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A major winter storm is coming to the Northeast, but areas East of Delaware, I think, will get hit the hardest.

This is my expectation.

The moisture to watch has been racing out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the coast into New England with a major Nor'easter.

CLICK HERE and CLICK HERE to track the radar.


Here's a sneak peek at the latest model data:

For the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor...

1 PM Thursday afternoon, February 25, 2010 - North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, based on today's 0z run (7 PM)

Courtesy: NCEP

NAM is yielding around 1.00 inch of liquid or

10 to 17 inches of snow

By early Friday morning, winds on the NAM model suggest gusts inland around 55 mph and higher along the Shore.


Scattered power outages will continue to be a problem.

There is new emphasis that this snowstorm will linger into Saturday as well.

The NAM model depicts an accumulation phase that comes in 3 distinct stages, namely Thursday, Early Friday Morning - Friday, and Saturday morning.



For the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor...

1 PM Thursday afternoon, February 25, 2010 - Global Forecast System (GFS) model, based on today's 0z run (7 PM)

Courtesy: NCEP

GFS is yielding over 1.10 inches of liquid or

11.5 to 23 inches of snow with some mixing to start

By late Thursday afternoon, winds on the GFS model suggest gusts inland around 40 mph and higher along the Shore.





Here's my thinking...

10 to 20 inches of snow will be possible with higher drifts for the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor.

Some mixing, especially early on, is not out of the question.

There is likely to be a SHARP cut-off to where the heavy snow bands form. If you live east of Delaware, you have a better chance of seeing the higher end of that 10 to 20 inch range.

Conversely, if you live between Dover, DE and Georgetown, DE, for example, you should get much less than 10 inches of snow.



Expect blowing and drifting snow, some icing, beach erosion and coastal flooding.

Stay tuned.

A Big Snowstorm is Coming...

02/24/10 12:03 PM EST

Posted by: David Aldrich

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UPDATE 6:15 PM Wednesday - I have seen the 18z data (1 PM). I have no changes to my thinking below.

__________

A major winter storm is coming to the Northeast, but areas East of Delaware, I think, will get hit the hardest.

This is my expectation.

The moisture to watch will be racing out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the coast into New England with a major Nor'easter.

CLICK HERE and CLICK HERE to track the radar.

Its track is still critical to determine just how much snow makes it to our area, but its effects, no doubt, will be far reaching.


Here's a sneak peek at the latest model data:

For the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor...

1 PM Thursday afternoon, February 25, 2010 - North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, based on today's 12z run (7 AM)

Courtesy: NCEP

NAM is yielding over 0.60 inches of liquid or

6.5 to 13 inches of just snow

By early Friday morning, winds on the NAM model suggest gusts inland 45 to 50 mph and higher along the Shore.



For the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor...

1 PM Thursday afternoon, February 25, 2010 - Global Forecast System (GFS) model, based on today's 12z run (7 AM)

Courtesy: NCEP

GFS is yielding over 1.40 inches of liquid or

14 to 27 inches of snow with some mixing to start

By late Thursday afternoon, winds on the GFS model suggest gusts inland 40 to 45 mph and higher along the Shore.




For the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor...

Start Time for this event ?

10 PM tonight to 1 AM Thursday morning, February 25th, 2010

Ending Time for this event ? (Confidence here is a bit lower)

Around 9 AM Friday, February 26th, 2010

A few lingering snow showers may re-appear into Saturday as well.



Here's my thinking...

10 to 20 inches of snow will be possible with higher drifts for the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor.

Some mixing, especially early on, is not out of the question.

There is likely to be a SHARP cut-off to where the heavy snow bands form. If you live east of Delaware, you have a better chance of seeing the higher end of that 10 to 20 inch range.

Conversely, if you live between Dover, DE and Georgetown, DE, for example, you should get less than 10 inches of snow.




Expect blowing and drifting snow, some icing, beach erosion and coastal flooding.

Stay tuned.

The Latest on the Next Winter Storm

02/23/10 10:03 PM EST

Posted by: David Aldrich

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UPDATE 11:35 PM Tuesday -

1 PM Thursday afternoon, February 25, 2010 - Global Forecast System (GFS) model, based on today's 0z run (7 PM)

Courtesy: NCEP

GFS is yielding nearly 1.0 inch of liquid or

9.5 to 19 inches of snow with some light mixing to start

By Friday, winds on the GFS model suggest gusts inland 45 to 50 mph and higher along the Shore.

The timing of the storm is still on target, although a few lingering snow showers may re-appear into Saturday as well.

--------

A major winter storm is set to hit the Northeast.

The moisture to watch will be racing out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the coast into New England with a major Nor'easter.

Its track is still critical to determine just how much snow makes it to our area, but its effects, no doubt, will be far reaching.


Here's a sneak peek at the latest model data...(not a forecast)...just model data:

For the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor...

1 PM Thursday afternoon, February 25, 2010 - North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, based on today's 0z run (7 PM)

Courtesy: NCEP

NAM is yielding over 0.95 inches of liquid or

9.5 to 17 inches of just snow

By Friday, winds on the NAM model suggest gusts inland 45 to 50 mph and higher along the Shore.





For the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor...

Start Time for this event ?

Around 1 AM Thursday morning, February 25th, 2010

Ending Time for this event ? (Confidence here is a bit lower)

Around 9 AM Friday, February 26th, 2010




What does all this mean ?

At a minimum, it means blowing and drifting snow, some icing, beach erosion and coastal flooding.

1 to 2 feet of snow across the Tri-State...with the heaviest toward New York City is still on the table.

For the record, the 18z run (1 PM) of the GFS model had 18 to 32 inches of snow with heavy sleet mixing in (especially to start) from the same storm for Thursday and Friday.

A wide-range here still equals great uncertainty.


Stay tuned.