UPDATE 6:15 PM Wednesday - I have seen the 18z data (1 PM). I have no changes to my thinking below.

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A major winter storm is coming to the Northeast, but areas East of Delaware, I think, will get hit the hardest.

This is my expectation.

The moisture to watch will be racing out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the coast into New England with a major Nor'easter.

CLICK HERE and CLICK HERE to track the radar.

Its track is still critical to determine just how much snow makes it to our area, but its effects, no doubt, will be far reaching.


Here's a sneak peek at the latest model data:

For the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor...

1 PM Thursday afternoon, February 25, 2010 - North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, based on today's 12z run (7 AM)
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Courtesy: NCEP

NAM is yielding over 0.60 inches of liquid or

6.5 to 13 inches of just snow

By early Friday morning, winds on the NAM model suggest gusts inland 45 to 50 mph and higher along the Shore.



For the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor...

1 PM Thursday afternoon, February 25, 2010 - Global Forecast System (GFS) model, based on today's 12z run (7 AM)
null
Courtesy: NCEP

GFS is yielding over 1.40 inches of liquid or

14 to 27 inches of snow with some mixing to start

By late Thursday afternoon, winds on the GFS model suggest gusts inland 40 to 45 mph and higher along the Shore.




For the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor...

Start Time for this event ?

10 PM tonight to 1 AM Thursday morning, February 25th, 2010

Ending Time for this event ? (Confidence here is a bit lower)

Around 9 AM Friday, February 26th, 2010

A few lingering snow showers may re-appear into Saturday as well.



Here's my thinking...

10 to 20 inches of snow will be possible with higher drifts for the Philly Metro and I-95 corridor.

Some mixing, especially early on, is not out of the question.

There is likely to be a SHARP cut-off to where the heavy snow bands form. If you live east of Delaware, you have a better chance of seeing the higher end of that 10 to 20 inch range.

Conversely, if you live between Dover, DE and Georgetown, DE, for example, you should get less than 10 inches of snow.




Expect blowing and drifting snow, some icing, beach erosion and coastal flooding.

Stay tuned.